Economy

1 USD =  1.4870

1 EUR = 1.9800

1 GBP = 2.2800

Politicians are lately focusing on the new constitution debate in Parliament. Inflation estimates for 2010 stand now at 7.25 % and at 6.80% for 2011. The Turkish Central bank is expected to increase interest rates by 0.25% to 0.50% during the third quarter.

Sultanas

Since a fortnight, prices have eased. Foreign buyers continue to buy on a hand to mouth basis... how long will this continue?  We estimate present Turkish sultanas levels to be in line with other origins, and certainly more attractive than Californian raisins. Last week’s shipment amounted to 3 783 tons. Total exports to date reached 139 779 tons, this compares to 181 651 tons for last season and 154 766 for 2007 crop at the same date. We estimate the 2009 crop exports will remain under 200 000 tons (compared with 275 000 for 2008 crop and 195 000 for 2007) This would leave a carry over of around 20/25.000 tons.

Dried Apricots

Frost, Frost, cold, etc... and prices shot up. Besides a few FCL transacted for export, biz is at a standstill.  Today on the Malatya market transactions are practically nonexistent. Lack of buyers mainly!

Farmers as well as local merchants are slowly realising that ‘’trees do not climb to the sky’’... an easiness in asking levels is expected... No frost is foreseen by weather forecasts for the coming weeks, unfortunately, the damage to the crop has already been made and we cannot foresee a large crop.  70.000 to 80.000 tons?  At this stage it’s any one’s guess.

Dried Figs

Active demand, firm prices.

Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Economy - Turkey

Jannuary export amount to 7.9 m usd. Imports advanced to 11.5 m Usd. A total gap of 3.6 m.usd, well under expected deficit of 5.2 m.usd. S&P raised its long-term foreign and local currency ratings for Turkey  to “BB” and “BB+” respectively.

The TRL has lost ground against the USD but gained against major EU curencies as foll :

This reflects not only our neighbour’s problem but also our domestic political turmoil. Feel TRL has more chances to appreciate than ease.

Our dried fruit supplier in Izmir reports :

Sultanas / Raissins

Registered sales out of growers hands has reached 184.000 ts. Total Exports to date amount to 113 670 ts . Durning week 8   3 031 tons were shipped. Turnover at the Bourse amount to 250 ts daily, bought mainly by exporters. Prices unchanged.  The California saga has come to an end. ?  Will that awake a special demand for Turkish fruit ?

Dried Apricots

When you run too fast, you usually get out of breath, that is what seems to be happening to Apricots prices.  On the Malatya market, you could today found only one or two local buyers, the main packers staying indoors. Prices  have eased and likely to drop somewhat more, we should be cautious,  whereas unsold sultanas quantities seems to be large, we cannot say the same thing for apricots. Special offers are available depending on size shipment date etc..

Dried Figs

As usual in this period activities are slowing down, only a few uncomitted lots are available in  the market. Exports to date for Whole figs amount to 27 768 tons avg price of 4 020 usd / ton Fob Izmir Expoters have stocked up for the Ramadan, quality wise only large figs remain available. We advise our friends to cover their needs till new crop, bearing in mind that demand for Ramadan can create some tension in this market in coming weeks.

Monday, January 15, 2010

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Economy - Turkey

Foreign trade deficit in December reached us$ 4.927mn: higher than the market consensus. The 2009 trade deficit was almost half of the previous year’s at us$ 38.6 bn. but will likely revert to higher levels this year.

Both imports and exports came higher than forecasts.  Tourism: In 2009 27 million foreign visitors came to Turkey.  2.8 % higher than in 2008. Income estimated at  21 bn us$ Germans hold the first place with 4.5 mn visitors.

Our Dried Fruit supplier in Izmir reports :

Sultanas

Export shipments dd 5th feb amount to 105.000 ts.. versus 128.000 ts in the same period last season. Export demand is sustained, focusing mainly on low grades. Prices at the Bourse have eased and although the bears seems to hold the helm lately, some packers/exporters also hold a long position, expecting higher prices.  Meantime Southern Hemisphere crops are not cheap and the Californian Export program saga goes on without a decision. No 9’s are offered between 1900 and 2000 usd per ton.  Whereas No 8’s have been quoted as low as 1820 usd/ton. Sometimes cheap is not what the end user expect in quality.

Dried Apricots

Shipments in Jan 2010  have been strong... 8.500 ts versus 6.700ts in Jan 09 Total export dated 31 Jan 2010 amount to 51.300 ts versus  48.600 ts (season 2008) Rumours of a smaller crop, packers buying at higher prices with payments at 90 days have pushed prices sky high. No 4 which at the beginning of the season was sold as low as 2.600 us$ is  now  offered between 3900/4000 us$/ ton.  Prices hold firm with an upward tendency. We expect prices to remain high till blooming time.. We would not like to imagine the consequences of an important frost in May !! Two major packers seem to have boosted this price advance, then most followed...They see the marker right. Congratulations.

Dried Figs

Only packers holding fruits can offer decent qualities...  the majority of fruit available on the market is of lower grades. Prices have also gone up. Hold firm.  We still have 7 months to go before new crop and a Ramadan in between. 2009 exports stand at 25.051 tons (Fob Avg Export price @ 4.023 usd / ton) vs 21.745 tons (Fob Avg Export price @ 5.080 usd / ton) last year at the same time. Good figs are now rare and command a premium vs rain affected material. As traditionally at this time of the year shipments have slowed down considerably. The next big event is the Ramadan in the month of August which will have to be supplied from this current 2009 crop. There is still time ahead to plan for it, but it’s better to secure the material now...This is also the right time to book chopped figs which we can supply with very strict specs using online X-Ray detection.

Weather

In general in Malatya as well as in Izmir weather conditions are favourable to the crops. Abundant rains in the Aegean districts: 137.5Kg of rain per m2 fell in Izmir in 24 hours last Sunday (31st Jan).  Some cool weather would be welcome. Malatya is now under snow...  also good.

Please do ask for quotes, due to volatile currencies a biz which could not be booked in the morning, can at noon and perhaps not in the evening.  A strong TRL does not help exporters but with recent currency fluctuations prices can move either way so do not hesitate to ask for prices regularly.

We`ll keep you posted.

Kind regards.